New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.. In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. It's Andrew's Previews for. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the December 2019 general election are listed here . That's according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by WalesOnline to mark St David's Day 2023. . Reform UK are also polling in the region of 6-7%. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Easy-to-digest video clips. Britain Elects deals in poll aggregation alongside analysis of upcoming elections and the state of British public opinion. YouGov poll, reported in the Telegraph on 31 Jan 2023Full results, The Times poll, conducted by YouGov, reported on 21 Jan 2023, Wings Over Scotland/The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 19 Dec 2022: Why do SNP voters hate women?, The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 17 Dec 2022, The Times poll, reported on 16 Oct 2022Full results. Trump. Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . However amidst mounting pressure on Boris Johnsons position in late June, and the drawn out nature of his resignation in early July, the Labour party once extended their lead over the Conservatives in the polls. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? Another. Following a lull in political activity over Christmas 2021, the Conservatives appeared to be recovering in early 2022, clawing back approximately half of the poll losses that they had seen before the festive period. Read more, Editorial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected], Commercial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected]. Founded by Ben Walker and Lily Jayne Summers. In the latest YouGov voting intention poll, the Conservatives have closed their gap with Labour to just four points. Latest YouGov poll suggests many voters in Scotland have dismissed warnings about the economic impacts of a yes vote YouGov's opinion poll for the Sunday Times suggests the yes. This drop off appears to dovetail with a growth in support in the opinion polls for the Scottish labour party under Anas Sarwar. Across the whole of the UK, the YouGov poll conducted on November 1-2 predicted Labour way out ahead on 50 per cent of the vote (down one point) and the Tories marooned on 25 per cent (up one point). Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. Support for the SNP, for Nicola Sturgeon and for Scottish independence has fallen sharply as the partys crisis over transgender rights deepens. Please try different keywords. ", Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years, Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Last updated Feb 21, 2023 View all Surveys (8) The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show No campaigners to have consolidated their lead in the polls once again. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. Holy oil prepared to anoint King Charles III during coronation during ceremony in Jerusalem. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. Slovakia's Smer back on top of opinion polls ahead of snap election bne IntelliNews 10:02 27-Feb-23. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting budget. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. In the case of Scotland, Politics.co.uk drew on the most recent Scottish voting intention polling data from Survation on 18 February. In early 2023, the No campaign had already regained an opinion poll lead, doing so at a time that coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Conservative support then fell by a further 6% as the first Downing Street party allegations emerged. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. YOUGOV has recorded a boost in Scottish independence support, with backing for Yes up four points in its latest polling. (Excluding Dont Knows the margin is just shy of 70/30, very similar to the margin by which people in polls oppose self-ID generally. The poll, commissioned by WalesOnline has found support for the Tories in Wales now sits at just 19%. ", Nicola Sturgeon claims no laws were broken during ferry contract scandal, SNP's 'politics of division' does 'not change' people's lives, says Anas Sarwar, The SNP benches will be a LOT quieter in future according to these new polls. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? All Rights Reserved. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?". 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Use at least 8 characters, an uppercase and a lowercase letter, and a number or symbol. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. We will not share your email address with any third parties. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" Labour remain on top with 37 per cent in the poll published this morning, an increase of one percentage point. Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. A poll of more than 1,000 people . All Rights Reserved. Former Sun boss and arch right-winger Kelvin MacKenzie also seemed to reach the same conclusion. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have 9 per cent of the vote (-1), but could be well placed to pick up vital seats in the Blue Wall, where voters would sooner pinch their nose and vote amber over red. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism. Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket. Gender Recognition Act, Tags: Gender Recognition Act, Gender Recognition Reform, Panelbase, poll, survey. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. ", Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. Speaking on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme, Nicola Sturgeon said her aim at May's Holyrood election was winning a . The latest YouGov panel has shown a shift against independence in several areas. In results published for the survey taken March 24-25, 2022 . All Rights Reserved. The latest Panelbase survey. When Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, 2022, YouGov polling showed Labour on 40% and the Tories on 29% an 11 point lead. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Delta Poll (27 February) which placed Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 8%. British Social Attitudes Survey 39, reported in The Times, 22 Sep 2022Full results I Chapter on Culture WarsMain findings: YouGov, May 2022Full report I DataMain findings: Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee, Scottish Parliament, reported 23 May 2022, Wings Over Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 02 May 2022: Voting for people who hate you. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to move south during Monday followed by frequent snow and hail showers, Ken Bruce leaves BBC with veiled jibe after they ended his show early over concerns was free advertising for a rival, The 72-year-old Glaswegian left Radio to join Greatest Hits Radio in April after the Beeb told him to step down 17 days early, Teaching strikes held off as union on brink of striking pay deal. Politics.co.uks current Westminster projections are also drawn through an aggregate extrapolation of the data on election polls. Again, the Scottish sample is even small (103 out of 993 once don't knows are removed) but the survey puts Labour in the lead north of the Border on 40 per cent of the vote. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . Question asked is stated in notes field. Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. Journalism in Britain is under threat. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. In the early part of the 2010s, with a Conservative coalition government in Westminster, and with the SNP focused on holding an indepdence referendum in Scotland, support for Scottish independence grew further. The company, based in Drumchapel, has reportedly ceased all trading with its annual results currently overdue by more than two months. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. Sturgeon Still Scotland's Most Popular Politician Despite 12% Margin Against Independence, Lesley Riddoch: A Nordic solution to Scotlands invisibility within the UK, Tories could be reduced to third UK party, shock opinion poll warns, Nicola Sturgeon responds to popularity rating drop amid trans prisoner row. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. We don't have an account for this email address. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon. Britain Elects. Much of the YouGov poll's Labour lead was buoyed by 17% of people who had previously voted for Boris Johnson saying they would now vote for Labour - double that of a week ago. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. YouGov, Panelbase, reported in the Times, 27 Nov 2021, Scot Goes Pop, Panelbase, reported in the Times, 31 Oct 2021Report I Data, For Women Scotland, 2023.For Women Scotland is a not-for-profit company limited by guarantee. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. You can also SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER . Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided. Should the public's feeling remain largely down. It found 72% of voters - including 69% of those who voted Tory in 2019 -. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. BBC Scotland Gender Recognition Act Poll, conducted by Savanta ComRes, reported by the BBC 17 Feb 2022Full Results I DataMain findings: 57% would support making the process to acquire a gender recognition certificate easier but that support dropped when asked about specific proposals. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" Does Douglas Alexanders comeback herald the return of Labours Blairites? Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. Should a general election be held today, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons: The result of a general election is projected as a Labour victory with the party securing an outright majority of 46 seats. Keir Starmer's lead over Rishi Sunak has increased to 7 pointsin terms of the party leader Britons think would make the best prime minister, by 34% (+2) to 27% (-1). NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. The rank outsider to become First Minister has only received the public backing of one serving politician, Joanna Cherry, amid struggles to get her campaign going. This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. Between January 2015 and December 2022 over 230 polls have been published and recorded in the main table. We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. ", Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK? The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? The pollster found. on public opinion. While polls should always be treated with caution, Labour supporters have celebrated the latest figures. With plans for the establishment of a Scottish parliament in Holyrood by the Blair government in the late 1990s, support for Scottish independence rose once again. Which party will you vote for? We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. YouGov: 24 Apr 2020 - 27 Apr 2020: 1,095: 25: 15: 6 : 2: 51; Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland: 01 May 2020 - 05 May 2020: 1,086: 26: 17: 5 : 2: 50; Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop: Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Scottish independence, tracking changes over time. At 64 per cent, those respondents most likely to lean towards voting Green at the next election were also most likely to say that they support the GRR bill and that the UK Governments veto was wrong. Our mission is to hold the powerful to account. Nicola Sturgeon Expected To Resign As Scottish First Minister Today But Why? Exclusive: Scottish Labour blasted the Scottish Government for their inaction in trying to get rid of dangerous Grenfell-styling cladding on buildings across the country. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Voting Intention. Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats have 9% of the vote (no change), while the Greens have 7% (-1) and Reform UK have 3% of the vote (no change). YouGov said that among those who voted Conservative in 2019 but now say they plan to vote Labour, Sunak's net favourability score, the percentage who have a 'favourable' opinion minus the . As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. It was a survey of more than 1,700 British adults. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Scottish independence. In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Although we'd had a YouGov earlier in February, that was for the Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) and YouGov have since clarified the questions were slightly different and thus not comparable. Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. It found that the yes vote was ahead in only one age group, amongst 25-to-39-year-olds, while in all others no. Entering the summer, levels of Conservative support took a sudden 3% hit following the resignation of then health secretary, Matt Hancock, in June 2021. Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. Most polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. The YouGov poll of voting intention conducted over Wednesday and Thursday showed 54% support for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives. Forgot your password? It was one of the biggest news stories of our. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. Although it is only a relatively small Scottish sample (148 people out of 1702 polled in total across the UK), the results would see 23 Nats lose their seats to leave them with 25 MPs. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. Relevance is automatically assessed so some headlines not qualifying as Scottish Opinion Poll news might appear - please feel free to contact us regarding any persistent issues. Sorry, no headlines or news topics were found. Support for Scottish independence has grown steadily over the last forty five years. Could Labour Profit From Nicola Sturgeons Resignation? The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. A new opinion poll has found that support for the Tories in Wales is in freefall. Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunak's party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Any variations that might have an impact on the poll result, such as excluding 16- to 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column.
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